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The One-Dimensional-Thermal-Violence (ODTV) experiment provides ignition time and wall velocity after 1 mm of lateral strain. We have determined that the wall velocity at this strain level correlates strongly with the number of fragments recovered after thermal ignition. In the current work, we present a model for both pre-ignition and post-ignition response of the ODTV experiment using 91:1:8 wt. % HMX, nitrocellulose, and K10 binder. A thermal model describes the spatial and temporal evolution of the energetic material up to ignition. Post ignition violence is evaluated following ignition.

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